Climate Models: Respect My Authoritah!

This speech by Professor Mike Hulme highlights the serious problem of validating computer models of climate change, and whether our confidence in them is justified. I have summarized the main points below. I have also included a link to part of Dr. Michael Crichton’s speech on Complexity Theory.

•Verification of computer models is only possible with closed systems, not with natural or complex systems.
•We do not know what degree of similarity between a simulated climate and the observed climate is enough to verify a model.
•Long-term predictions are impossible to verify against observed reality—even in a qualified sense.

‘Challenging Models in the Face of Uncertainty – Conference Keynote: Professor Mike Hulme (UEA): How do Climate Models Gain and Exercise Authority?’
http://www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/page/195/media-gallery.htm

“…No special scientific expertise of any kind is required to see the deception in treating climate models as trustworthy, presenting confident statements of climate alarm derived from models in the Summary, and leaving the disclosure of climate model deficiencies hidden away in the detailed chapters of the definitive work on climate change. Climategate gave us the phrase “Hide the decline.” For questionable and untrustworthy climate models, we may need another phrase. I suggest “Conceal the flaws.” ”

Climate Model Deception – See It for Yourself
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/21/climate-model-deception-–-see-it-for-yourself/

‘South Park – Respect My Authority ( Cartman )’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfwz1Avkd90&feature=related

‘Complexity Theory – Michael Crichton Speech #6’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuUcBiToWg4&feature=rel

22 October, 2010

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