Climategrad: The General Surrenders

While “Climategate” will inevitably be remembered as a turning point in the battle for climate truth, we can now include this admission by Phil Jones as equally important: that there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995. This is clear evidence against CAGW (CO2-AGW-theory) as per Hansen’s original paper.

“Roger Harrabin: B – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming?

Phil Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.”

Here Jones explains his interesting concept of how statistical trends can still be sort of significant if they are close enough to significant! He of course doesn’t address how, if Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory was true, there must be a constant warming trend.

Despite his obvious obfuscations this takes Jones from stages three and four of the Kübler-Ross model of grief (bargaining and despair) to stage five (acceptance). Most of the AGW crowd are still in stage one (denial) or stage two (anger). It is not Jones’ only admission either, as he finally concedes the possibility that the world was warmer during medieval times — suggesting that the late 20th century warming may not be man-made after all.

So, much like the battle of Stalingrad during WWII, the ‘general’ has surrendered (i.e. Gen. Paulus), and even a cold winter was a factor — with record snowfalls across the northern hemisphere. Also, before Jones’ surrender, things had all gone the warmists’ way, with skeptics silenced or ignored. But now they must endure a long retreat after a demoralising defeat. This is indeed the beginning of the end of AGW theory!

‘Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’

‘Q&A: Professor Phil Jones’

‘Phil Jones momentous Q&A with BBC reopens the “science is settled” issues « Watts Up With That?’

‘Battle of Stalingrad – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia’

14 February, 2010


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