Global Cooling 2001-2030?

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As loathe as I am to make predictions about the future, it seems to me the world has entered a cooling period until about 2030. However, I am not quite ready to take it to the bank. Mother Nature, after all, loves to surprise us with the new and unusual.

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Confusion Over The 20th Century Warming Trend

There appears to be a great deal of confusion concerning the warming trend since 1850, and its relation to AGW theory. The scientific community accepts most of this warming as natural. And I stress MOST of this warming, because climatologists can still argue that SOME of this warming trend (1944-2000) is man-made, however, it indistinguishable from the natural fluctuations in the climate system itself. It is also worth considering this: we are still recovering from the Little Ice Age of the 1700s, which is probably colouring our view of the late 20th century warming, which may or may not be partly anthropogenic.

Furthermore, the 20th century shows a pattern of warming early on in the century, which cannot be related to the increase of so-called greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This is because most of the GHGs from human activity have been put in the air in the latter half of the 20th century. (A century that can essentially be divided in half between what we know is natural and what is supposedly anthropogenic.) It is important to note that the IPCC III-IV assessment reports do not dispute this—they accept it. It is curious that this is not well known by those who support AGW theory.

AGW proponents (including Mann, Jones, Hansen etc.) accept that up until 1944, or thereabouts, there was warming, unrelated to man-made emissions. Then, up until 1977 there was cooling, or a flattening of the temperature. But, this pattern of warming-cooling CANNOT be from carbon dioxide. Then, finally, there was the warming at the end of the 20th century. The reality is that you cannot look at the 20th century and say that all this warming MUST be from man-made GHGs – only that the warming from the last part of the twentieth century MIGHT be from greenhouse gases. As things stand, it is speculation not fact that the recent global warming must be caused by human activities.

The pattern suggests that the world has entered a period of slight cooling until about 2030:

1882 – 1910 Cooling
1910 – 1944 Warming
1944 – 1977 Cooling
1977 – 2001 Warming

31 July, 2010

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“1880 to 1915 cool period. Atmospheric temperature measurements, glacier fluctuations, and oxygen isotope data from Greenland ice cores all record a cool period from about 1880 to about 1915. Many cold temperature records in North America were set during this period. Glaciers advanced, some nearly to terminal positions reached during the Little Ice Age about 400 years ago. During this period, global temperatures were about 0.9 ° C (1.6 ° F) cooler than at present. From 1880 to 1890, temperatures dropped 0.35 ° C (0.6° F) in only 10 years. The 1880 –1915 cool period shows up well in the oxygen isotope curve of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

1915 to 1945 warm period. Global temperatures rose steadily in the 1920s, 1930s, and early 1940s. By the mid-1940s, global temperatures were about 0.5 °C (0.9° F) warmer than they had been at the turn of the century. More high temperature records for the century were recorded in the 1930s than in any other decade of the 20th century. Glaciers during this warm period retreated, temperatures in the 1930s in Greenland were warmer than at present, and rates of warming were higher (warming 4°C (7° F) in two decades). All of this occurred before CO2 emissions began to soar after 1945, so at least half of the warming of the past century cannot have been caused by manmade CO2.

1945 to 1977 cool period. Global temperatures began to cool in the mid–1940’s at the point when CO2 emissions began to soar. Global temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere dropped about 0.5° C (0.9° F) from the mid-1940s until 1977 and temperatures globally cooled about 0.2° C (0.4° F). Many of the world’s glaciers advanced during this time and recovered a good deal of the ice lost during the 1915–1945 warm period. Many examples of glacial recession cited in the news media show contrasting terminal positions beginning with the maximum extent at the end of the 1880-1915 year cool period and ending with the minimum extent of the recent 20 year warm period (1977-1998). A much better gauge of the effect of climate on glaciers would be to compare glacier terminal positions between the ends of successive cool periods or the ends of successive warm periods.

1977 to 1998 global warming The global cooling that prevailed from ~1945 to 1977 ended abruptly in 1977 when the Pacific Ocean shifted from its cool mode to its warm mode in a single year and global temperatures began to rise, initiating two decades of global warming. This sudden reversal of climate in 1977 has been called the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” because it happened so abruptly. During this warm period, alpine glaciers retreated, Arctic sea ice diminished, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet occur.

The abruptness of the shift in Pacific sea surface temperatures and corresponding change from global cooling to global warming in 1977 is highly significant and strongly suggests a cause-and-effect relationship. The rise of atmospheric CO2, which accelerated after 1945 shows no sudden change that could account for the “Great Pacific Climate Shift”.

1999 to 2010 global cooling. No global warming has occurred above the 1998 level and temperatures have declined slightly.”

‘2010 – where does it fit in the warmest year list?’
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/28/2010—where-does-it-fit-in-the-warmest-year-list/

28 December, 2010

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