Google Earth: Simulating Disaster

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Do the public know the difference between fact and speculation? There’s a scientific difference between evidence of an event that has occurred at some point in the past and predicting what might happen in the future. The problem is the arrogance of the reliance on technology. Do we, as a generation, really believe that computer simulations can predict the future? It’s so much easier, and cosier, to sit in a computer lab and make a computer model create a nice and scary output that the super-rich grant providers want, and so much harder to work your way through complexity, with more sophisticated methods, to become a climate realist.

Too many climate scientists take the easy route of substituting proper analysis with noise (i.e. NOAA and CRU), rather than embrace the uncertainty, adapt to the complexity it adds, and come up with robust results. All this “tipping point” based on “computer models” isn’t science it’s guesswork. What happened to good old “lets have a look at what’s actually happening”? Experts must independently verify AGW science, just like any other science, without a vested interest in the results, and with robust analysis using robust methodologies.

“My concerns deepen when I read “Climate models now have some skill in simulating changes in climate since 1850…” SOME SKILL? This is not skill in predicting the future. This is skill in reproducing the past. It doesn’t sound like these models really perform very well. It would be natural to ask how they are tested…”

‘The Case For Skepticism On Global Warming — National Press Club, Washington DC, January 25, 2005’
http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-ourenvironmentalfuture.html

“London (AFP) – British ministers have launched a new Google Earth map designed to show the potential impact of temperature rises of four degrees Celsius.

The interactive map lets members of the public see the dramatic changes that could occur if action is not taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Significant alterations include higher temperatures over land compared to the sea, and extreme temperature increases in the Arctic, according to the map.

It was created using analysis from the Met Office Hadley Centre, a largely state-funded climate change research unit that advises government, and other leading scientists in the field, according to a Foreign Office statement.”

The map can be viewed at: www.fco.gov.uk/google-earth-4degrees.kml

‘Google Earth map showing temperature rises unveiled’
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100715/sc_afp/britainclimatewarminginternetgoogle_20100715070933

15 July, 2010

http://apps.facebook.com/journaling/view.php?item=71818

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