The Living Earth Simulator?

“The result would be the LES. It would be able to predict the spread of infectious diseases, such as Swine Flu, identify methods for tackling climate change or even spot the inklings of an impending financial crisis, he [Dr Helbing, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology] says.”

This is getting into the realm of delusional, god-like thinking. These people are so arrogant it staggers the mind! We cannot accurately predict earthquakes (only predict their likelihood within a certain wide timeframe) let alone the entire Earth system. So, all these guys need to do is to identify the variables for everything happening in, on and surrounding the planet? Best of luck chaps! That’s only multi-variable analyses of millions, even billions, of variables. They’d never reach the end! Even if they could identify them all, they would have to measure them accurately and then accurately measure their contribution to assumed response criteria! And then there are the variables they couldn’t think of and what about THEIR effects?

In order to simulate the Earth system they would need to spend a few thousand years gathering data, by which time it would be outdated. This futile endeavour probably comes down to human delusion, about what computers can do, as well as greed for research grants. Computers are currently only high-speed calculators. They’re NOT a replacement for human-reasoning. They’re DEFINITELY NOT crystal balls capable of gazing into the future. If an input is flawed, then the output will be flawed. (GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.) The algorithms used to manipulate data can certainly be flawed – which is what Climategate is partially about.

Many of the climate scientists’ erroneous conclusions, particularly at the CRU (East Anglia University), came down to the assumptions they made. If you change your assumptions, you change your conclusions. This, of course, begs the question: How are they going to be able verify their conclusions for these super-simulations? As Professor Mike Hulme stated in his speech ‘How do Climate Models Gain and Exercise Authority,’ verification of computer models is only possible with closed systems, not with natural or complex systems. And Earth is definitely a complex-non-linear system.

To be honest, these people are dangerous. They’re dealing with vast amounts of other peoples’ money and resources. Moreover, they’re helping to convince people that this is even possible. Maybe, one day, when we have created some kind of quantum or biomechanical computer, utilizing currently non-existent knowledge of the human brain then, yes, it could be possible. But not right now. They’ve obviously watched too much TV and played too many video games. A little humility would go a long way with these guys. They need to sit down and get real! As Issac Newton said: “To myself I am only a child playing on the beach, while vast oceans of truth lie undiscovered before me.”

“An international group of scientists is aiming to create a simulator that can replicate everything happening on Earth – from global weather patterns and the spread of diseases to international financial transactions or congestion on Milton Keynes’ roads.

Nicknamed the Living Earth Simulator (LES), the project aims to advance the scientific understanding of what is taking place on the planet, encapsulating the human actions that shape societies and the environmental forces that define the physical world.

“Many problems we have today – including social and economic instabilities, wars, disease spreading – are related to human behaviour, but there is apparently a serious lack of understanding regarding how society and the economy work,” says Dr Helbing, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, who chairs the FuturICT project which aims to create the simulator.”

‘Earth project aims to ‘simulate everything”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-12012082

‘Challenging Models in the Face of Uncertainty – Conference Keynote: Professor Mike Hulme (UEA): How do Climate Models Gain and Exercise Authority?’
http://www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/page/195/media-gallery.htm

‘Complexity Theory – Michael Crichton Speech #6’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuUcBiToWg4&feature=related

‘Google Earth: Simulating Disaster – 15 July, 2010’
http://apps.facebook.com/journaling/view.php?item=71818

29 December, 2010

http://apps.facebook.com/journaling/view.php?item=73068

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