The Russia-Georgia War Was Inevitable

MYTH: Georgia sparked the war with Russia when it launched its offensive into South Ossetia.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that Russia planned its war beforehand, and the compelling evidence that Russian forces were in South Ossetia before the August 7 Georgian offensive, far too many people, even so-called “experts” are still under the impression that Georgia (or Saakashvili specifically) fell into a Russian trap. However, it can be proven—beyond a reasonable doubt—that this was a trap from which Georgia could not escape. Russia was going to invade, one way or another, and Georgia’s actions were strategically necessary to buy crucial time needed to survive, including alerting the world. Those with a basic understanding of the military, or even a basic understanding of geography, can figure this out—it doesn’t take a genius. If Saakashvili had done anything less, tanks would have rolled into Tbilisi, and Georgia would have lost its independence. 15/7/09

Russian Invasion of Georgia

I’ve been analysing all the moves before the conflict began. Such as Russia’s troop build up along the border a month beforehand, their violation of Georgian airspace, and the sudden escalation of South Ossetian provocations before Russia’s overt involvement. This includes the roadside bombing of a Georgian police patrol and the sudden shelling of Georgian villages, which led to Georgia’s military response. Also, there’s the British Intelligence assessment that Putin would attack this year. Richard Holbrooke’s prediction last year that Russia would respond with force to bring Georgia back under its domination because of their future NATO membership promised in April. Finally, the U.S. government’s investigation that found it was the South Ossetians who initiated the conflict. Frankly, when it comes to believing the word of Saakashvili or Putin (which is mainly what it comes down to here), I’m more willing to believe a democratically elected, western educated ally than an autocratic, election rigging bully. 15/8/08

Parallels between Hitler and Putin

The South Ossetians, who are considered to be Russians, are essentially like the Sudeten Germans of Czechoslavakia in 1938. Putin has used the same premise as Hitler of going in to protect their kin and maybe even annexing territory. Russia’s actions also have parallels with Poland in 1939 with the false pretext for war.

• Hitler counted on a weak West fearful of war in order to get his way. Putin counts on a weak West fearful of war in order to get his way!
• Hitler dreamed of recreating the great German Empire that had been reduced. Putin dreams of recreating the Russian Empire that has been reduced!
• Hitler believed that Germany’s defeat in WWI and the end of the German Empire was the biggest catastrophe in history. Putin believes that Russia’s defeat in the Cold War and the end of the Soviet Empire is the biggest catastrophe in 20th century history (he has been quoted as saying just that!)
• Hitler despised the weakness and Western orientation and brief period of democracy of the Weimar Republic. Putin despised the weakness and western orientation and brief period of democracy of the post Cold War years (the 1990s).
• Hitler came to power democratically and then became a dictator. Putin came to power democratically and then became a dictator. 13/8/08

Putin’s obvious war aims:

1.) The removal of the Democratically elected President of Georgia (Saakashvili)
2.) The annexation of some of Georgia (including Abkhazia and S. Ossetia)
3.) Turn Georgia into a small subservient (or client) state.
4.) VERY IMPORTANT POINT: the control of the oil pipeline (Baku-Supsa) running through Georgia. That would give them a monopoly on oil supplies running through the Caucasus. That would give Russia a lot of power.
5.) Push back American influence in the region.
6.) It would be seen as a reassertion of Russian power (Putin wanting a revival of an imperial Russia). 10/8/08

15 July, 2009

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