A Nuclear Iran Cannot Be Contained

UPDATE: February 23, 2012 He Was Constructing a Genocide Weapon

It’s unfortunate that the Iranian regime is run by a bunch of fanatics who have allied themselves with terrorists – so you could say that they themselves are a terrorist state. Iran already gives weapons and support to terrorist groups like Hezbollah, so they could secretly give them nuclear bombs.

If Tel Aviv was suddenly nuked by a smuggled in nuclear bomb, then Iran could deny any knowledge and escape retaliation. But Iran could always decide that the direct approach is easier, and kid themselves into thinking that they can wipe out Israel in a surprise bombardment by nuclear missiles, and avoid any heavy retaliation.

Ahmadinejad is a delusional fanatic who believes it is Allah’s will to destroy Israel, and may believe that he is the one destined to do it.

“First, the fact that we survived the previous nuclear standoff is hardly evidence that deterrence was bound to succeed. On more than one occasion during the West’s struggle with Communism, the threat of mutually assured destruction did not prevent the two sides from stepping right to the brink, most famously during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

It would be a deadly game to try to replay MAD with Iran, in an international environment lacking many of the necessary conditions that helped keep the Cold War from unraveling into chaos. This is not just because mutually assured destruction might be more of an incentive than a deterrent for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and those around him. Even assuming Tehran will act “rationally,” MAD would still be too dangerous to contemplate.

Crucially, a nuclear standoff with Iran would lack a key component that helped keep the Cold War from turning hot: a modicum of mutual trust. Although they were ideological enemies, the Soviet Union and the U.S. had full diplomatic relations and clear channels of communication. Remember those famous red telephones?

Nothing of this sort exists between the U.S. and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Even in promising to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, Tehran can’t even bring itself to so much as call the country by its proper name, referring to it as the “Zionist entity.” The absence of direct contacts raises the chance of either side misreading its opponent’s intentions.

In addition, Iran lacks second-strike capability and Israel is too small to absorb a nuclear attack. The temptation to launch a preemptive attack will therefore be far greater than that faced by the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Add to that the much shorter flight times for missiles between Iran and Israel than between the U.S. and the Soviet Union—giving both sides much less time to think and react—and the chances for conflict or mishap spiraling out of control grow exponentially. Even if the Iranian regime has no intention of launching an atomic strike, the risks of nuclear war by misinterpretation, technical error or miscalculation could prove unmanageable.

And unlike during the Cold War, in which there were only two main nuclear players, an Iranian bomb would inevitably lead other neighboring states to follow suit, producing a fragile standoff between several actors.”

Containment Won’t Work Against Iran

WikiLeaks: Arab Attitude Toward Iran

Trivialising The Nuclear Bomb

Should Iran Be Bombed?

Iran With The Bomb, Or To Bomb Iran?

Iran vs The West: Nuclear Containment?

The Threat Of Nuclear/Biological Terrorism


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