Watts et al 2012: Urban Heat Island (UHI) Has A Huge Effect On Surface Temperature Data

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A new paper by Watts et al 2012 on U.S. surface temperature records:

“Anthony has led what is a critically important assessment of the issue of station quality. Indeed, this type of analysis should have been performed by Tom Karl and Tom Peterson at NCDC, Jim Hansen at GISS and Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia (and Richard Muller). However, they apparently liked their answers and did not want to test the robustness of their findings.

In direct contradiction to Richard Muller’s BEST study, the new Watts et al 2012 paper has very effectively shown that a substantive warm bias exists even in the mean temperature trends. This type of bias certainly exists throughout the Global Historical Climate Network, as well as what Anthony has documented for the US Historical Climate Reference Network.”

Comments On The Game Changer New Paper “An Area And Distance Weighted Analysis Of The Impacts Of Station Exposure On The U.S. Historical Climatology Network Temperatures And Temperature Trends” By Watts Et Al 2012

PRESS RELEASE – U.S. Temperature trends show a spurious doubling due to NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments

NOAA Climategate Ground Zero

The Corruption Of Climate Science

Ian Plimer: “Humans can change the weather. The ‘urban heat island’ effect shows that the concentration of roads, concrete, buildings and machinery in towns of more than 1000 inhabitants creates a warmer setting than in a rural setting. In Europe, we see a ‘winter weekend effect’ where cooler wetter weather probably results from human activity. These weather changes do not necessarily mean that humans change climate.”

A Geological Perspective On Climate Change

Met Office Predictions

The Met Office can’t seem to get it right, can it? Matt Ridley lists its dud predictions and inherent warming bias.

“On March 23 this year, the Met Office issued the following prediction: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole ….”

That went well, didn’t it? April-May- June was the wettest ever in England, though not in Britain. According to the private forecaster MeteoGroup, June was probably the wettest in England and Wales since 1860…

The Met Office’s track record of … longer-range predictions have often been not just badly wrong, but consistently biased on the warm, dry side.

In 2007, it wrongly forecast a warm summer. In 2008 it wrongly forecast a mild winter. In 2009, it said “the chances of getting the barbecue out are much higher than last year” but the summer was a washout. Also that year it said that the trend towards milder winters was likely to continue, whereupon a savage winter followed…

In October 2010 it saw “a very much smaller chance of average or below-average temperatures” in the coming winter shortly before the coldest December for 100 years…

Now look at the curriculum vitae of the chairman of the Met Office, Robert Napier. He is also chairman of the Green Fiscal Commission and the World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and has been a director of the Carbon Disclosure Project, the Alliance of Religions and Conservation and the Climate Group. He is so high up in the church of global warming, he is a carbon cardinal. I am sure he is a man of great integrity, but given this list you have to wonder if one of the organisations he chairs does not occasionally — and perhaps unconsciously — aim to please him with warm long-range forecasts.”

Matt Ridley: The Met Office’s Green Bias