Met Office Predictions
July 3, 2012 1 Comment
The Met Office can’t seem to get it right, can it? Matt Ridley lists its dud predictions and inherent warming bias.
“On March 23 this year, the Met Office issued the following prediction: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole ….”
That went well, didn’t it? April-May- June was the wettest ever in England, though not in Britain. According to the private forecaster MeteoGroup, June was probably the wettest in England and Wales since 1860…
The Met Office’s track record of … longer-range predictions have often been not just badly wrong, but consistently biased on the warm, dry side.
In 2007, it wrongly forecast a warm summer. In 2008 it wrongly forecast a mild winter. In 2009, it said “the chances of getting the barbecue out are much higher than last year” but the summer was a washout. Also that year it said that the trend towards milder winters was likely to continue, whereupon a savage winter followed…
In October 2010 it saw “a very much smaller chance of average or below-average temperatures” in the coming winter shortly before the coldest December for 100 years…
Now look at the curriculum vitae of the chairman of the Met Office, Robert Napier. He is also chairman of the Green Fiscal Commission and the World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and has been a director of the Carbon Disclosure Project, the Alliance of Religions and Conservation and the Climate Group. He is so high up in the church of global warming, he is a carbon cardinal. I am sure he is a man of great integrity, but given this list you have to wonder if one of the organisations he chairs does not occasionally — and perhaps unconsciously — aim to please him with warm long-range forecasts.”
Matt Ridley: The Met Office’s Green Bias