Israel’s Nightmare Scenario Is Near

The nightmare that was the Islamic State war is over, with ISIL (ISIS) now back to being a weakened terrorist group running a low-level insurgency in Iraq and Syria. The nightmare scenario of Iran threatening Israel through a land connection to its border is now looming.

The only things left for Iran to do are completing the subjugation of Syria, and the expulsion of a US military presence right in the middle of their path to Israel. Iran’s militias and political interference has largely secured Iraq. The Assad regime in Syria is now nothing more than a vassal state to Iran, propped up by Russian mercenaries. Ending the Syrian civil war with all territory either retaken or at least dominated by the regime with no rebel, independent, or Western forces posing any risk to Iran’s ambitions will ensure this pathway is clear and unthreatened.

Both Obama and Trump failed to support pro-democracy and Western-friendly rebels in southern Syria, allowing the regime to subjugate the whole territory bordering Israel. And now Trump’s betrayal of the Syrian Kurds has weakened America’s presence and alliances in the region, while subordinating them to the regime, and thus Iran.

Erdogan has butchered many of America’s former allies, and with the regime and the Russians now moving in, the Kurds have some protection, but at the cost of their freedom. This move is clearly a victory for Erdogan and Assad, with Putin able to do more grandstanding, yet what is largely missed is Iran’s great victory. If the withdrawal by Trump from Syria is then followed by Iraq, then Iran can consider Trump to be their greatest unwitting ally – ironic as Trump heavily criticized Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. The path will then be clear for Iran. And if Trump’s behavior is the ushering in of a new era of American isolationism and unreliability, then it will truly be a nightmare. Israel had better be prepared.

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